Det skriver Majid Rafizadeh her på Gatestone Institute – Oversat af Kirsten Valeur
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Oprindelig engelsk tekst: Iran’s Mullahs Can Never Change, Never Be ‘Friends’
Oversat af Kirsten Valeur
Mange vestlige politikere har i mere end fire årtier håbet, at forhandlinger med det islamistiske styre i Iran ville kunne føre til en ændring i styrets opførsel og indstilling til Vesten. Teheran er gentagne gange blevet tilbudt diplomatiske åbninger, økonomiske incitamenter og indrømmelser i håbet om, at styret ville moderere sin politik. Ethvert diplomatisk forsøg er imidlertid fejlet. Forsøgene vil desværre fortsætte med at fejle. Hvad enten man kan lide det eller ej er det iranske styres natur sammenknyttet med dets ideologiske grundlag. Den Islamiske Republik Iran er ikke en normal stat, og heller ikke et konventionelt diktatur, for den sags skyld. Det er en ideologisk enhed, der henter sin identitet fra modstand mod USA, Israel og Vesten.
Fra det øjeblik, hvor Den Islamiske Republik blev født ved revolutionen i 1979, blev dens kerneidentitet skabt i opposition til USA og Israel. Dette var ikke bare udenrigspolitiske holdninger, men derimod centrale principper for styrets eksistens. Styret henviser til USA som den “store satan” og til Israel som den “lille satan”, idet det selvretfærdigt positionerer sig som den guddommelige retfærdigheds kraft imod disse angivelige legemliggørelser af ondskab.
For de iranske mullaher er fjendskab mod USA og Israel ikke bare retorik; det er grundpillen i deres legitimitet. Hvis styret gav afkald på sit fjendskab mod USA og Israel, ville det miste hele den retfærdiggørelse, som det har bygget sin magt på.
I modsætning til pragmatiske autokratier, der udviser fjendtligheder ud fra strategiske årsager, men kan skifte kurs om nødvendigt, ser det iranske styre modstand mod Vesten som en religiøs pligt. Hvis de blev venner med USA eller Israel, ville det være forræderi mod styrets revolutionære, islamistiske rødder, der i deres øjne er selve årsagen til deres eksistens – noget, styret ikke kan gøre uden at bryde sammen indefra, lige så lidt som USA ville kunne fravige principperne om individuel frihed, ligestilling over for loven eller ytringsfrihed.
På trods af denne solide kendsgerning har successive vestlige regeringer gentagne gange forsøgt at gå i dialog med Iran, muligvis i den tro, at økonomiske eller diplomatiske incitamenter ville ændre styrets opførsel. Obama-regeringens tilgang er et godt eksempel. Med henblik på at få en “atomaftale” hævede USA’s sanktioner, gav milliarder af dollars i sanktionslettelser og leverede endda paller med kontanter til de regerende mullaher. Konsekvensen heraf var, at det iranske styre ikke alene undlod at moderere sin opførsel – det eskalerede tværtimod sit fjendskab ved hjælp af de midler, som det havde modtaget fra USA. Slagordene “Død over USA” og “Død over Israel” lød kraftigere, Teheran kanaliserede flere penge til terroristiske stedfortrædere som Hizbollah og Hamas, berigede uran hurtigere end nogen sinde og spredte sin aggression ud over Mellemøsten.
I stedet for at bruge de uventede indtægter fra atomaftalen til at forbedre almindelige iraneres liv brugte styret pengene til at konsolidere sit islamistiske system, udvide sin militære rækkevidde og accelerere sine atomvåbenambitioner. Alle forhandlinger med Iran har fulgt det samme mønster: Det iranske styre kommer med løfter, sikrer sig økonomiske og politiske gevinster, og når det først har styrket sin position, genoptager det sine aggressive handlinger.
En af det vestlige diplomatis største illusioner er troen på, at Iran gennem forhandlinger kan overbevises om at opgive sit atomprogram. Den Islamiske Republik ser atomvåben som den ultimative garanti for sin overlevelse. Styret har lært af historien. Det så, hvad der skete med Libyens Muammar Gaddafi – der var gået med til en afmontering af sit atomprogram, men alligevel blev omstyrtet og dræbt. Irans “øverste leder”, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, har eksplicit erklæret, at Gaddafis skæbne viser, hvorfor Iran aldrig bør opgive sine atomvåben.
Lige som med Nordkorea kan forhandlinger forhale udviklingen af Irans atomvåben midlertidigt; de kan dog aldrig standse den. Styret vil kun gå med til samtaler, når det har brug for at købe sig tid – hvad enten den er til at genopbygge styrets økonomi under dække af diplomati, for at berolige Vesten, eller for at overstå et ugunstigt politisk klima, som en Trump. Styrets mål forbliver altid det samme: at få atomvåben for at konsolidere sin regionale dominans og afskrække andre fra at forsøge at fjerne styret fra magten.
Intet land forstår det iranske styre bedre end Israel. I modsætning til visse vestlige politikere, der fortsat har illusioner om diplomati, så har Israel førstehåndsviden om, at det iranske styre bygger på løgne og bedrag. Irans lederskab har åbent erklæret det som sit mål at slette Israel fra landkortet, og Irans forfatning fastslår eksplicit, at man vil eksportere den islamistiske revolution til hele verden. Af disse årsager er Israel, der formodentlig er bekymret over omkostningerne ved at miste tid og muligheder, imod alle forhandlinger med Iran.
Det er på tide, at Vesten forlader den fejlslagne strategi med at gå i dialog med Irans styre. Diplomati har i mere end fire årtier ikke virket. Og det vil det desværre aldrig komme til. Den Islamiske Republik er ikke en rationel statslig aktør, der kan lokkes til at samarbejde ved hjælp af økonomiske incitamenter eller diplomatiske åbninger. Det er et ideologisk styre, der betragter sig selv som guddommeligt bemyndiget til at gå imod Vesten.
Hvis Vesten virkelig ønsker at imødegå den trussel, som det iranske styre udgør, skal Vesten holde op med at fortsætte frugtesløse forhandlinger og i stedet følge en strategi baseret på styrke. Det betyder en fuldtonet støtte til Israels position over for Iran og at tage afgørende skridt for at forhindre Iran i at få atomvåben. Den eneste måde at neutralisere den iranske trussel er desværre gennem styrke. Styret i Iran forstår kun magt. Indtil Vesten indser denne kendsgerning, vil Vesten fortsætte med at blive bedraget, mens det iranske styre køber sig tid til uhindret at fremme sine ambitioner.
Majid Rafizadeh er politolog, Harvard-uddannet analytiker og bestyrelsesmedlem ved Harvard International Review. Han er forfatter til adskillige bøger om amerikansk udenrigspolitik og islam. Han kan kontaktes på dr.Rafizadeh@post.Harvard.Edu
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“Crunch time”
“If Trump doesn’t take out Iran’s nuclear programme, he’ll be seen as a busted flush
Det skriver den særdeles vidende Melanie Phillips her i anledning af at Donald Trump giver Iran en cjance for endnu en aftale …
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After the talks in Oman on Sunday between the United States and Iran over America’s demand that Tehran dismantle its nuclear programme, both the US and Iran described these discussions as “positive and constructive”.
It is not possible for talks with the Iranian regime over dismantling its nuclear programme to be positive and constructive for anyone but the Iranian regime. If Tehran is hailing the talks as “positive and constructive”, it means it believes it has the US over a barrel. Again.
The regime has always lied reflexively over its nuclear programme. It also plays a sophisticated game of multi-dimensional chess that knocks the socks off the gullible and credulous west. For years, western governments professed to believe Iran’s previous and worthless commitments. Did they ever really believe Tehran’s lies? Maybe they did; but if they didn’t, they pretended they did because they didn’t want to face up to the alternative.
Has anything changed under President Donald Trump?
A fresh round of talks between the two sides is now reportedly planned for next week. The Trump administration wants this round to be held in Rome. Tehran won’t confirm or deny that it is to be held in Rome. This coyness is a tactic to humiliate America. The Islamic regime is up to its old game, its tried and trusted tactic of stringing along the US with America’s tongue hanging out. The regime has been here before, many times. We’ve all been here before. Has Trump finally learned what this game actually is?
The signs are not exactly auspicious. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, continues to astonish and perplex by his stupendous geopolitical naivety. He previously hailed the Islamists of Hamas as “not ideologically intractable” and the Qataris — the sponsors, founders and protectors of Hamas — as “good, decent people”. This witless envoy who distinguishes between reasonable and unreasonable genocidal fanatics told the Wall Street Journal prior to the Oman talks that while the US won’t tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran, there was “room for compromise”. He noted that the US position starts with dismantling the nuclear program, but added, “That doesn’t mean we aren’t open to negotiations.”
Over what does Witkoff think there can be negotiation with Tehran? What, precisely, does he intend America to offer it? America should be offering the genocidists of Iran precisely nothing.
Yet Witkoff seems to be implying that America could live with an Iranian nuclear programme provided it isn’t weaponised. This is truly, madly, deeply stupid. If Tehran has, as reported, enriched uranium to 60 per cent, that level is solely intended for the construction of nuclear weapons. And any idea that there would ever be any effective inspection mechanism to keep Iran’s dirty hands off this material is for the birds.
Alarmingly, YNet reports:
An Iranian official disclosed that the draft proposal brought by Witkoff to the first round did not include a demand for dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure or any explicit military threat — conditions that had led to the collapse of previous talks. The softer tone helped foster a more constructive environment but raised concerns in Israel about the seriousness of US intentions and the absence of clear red lines.
Yet Trump has been making highly belligerent noises towards Tehran. “If talks with Iran aren’t successful, I think Iran will be in great danger,” he said, insisting that the regime must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon.
It’s possible that Trump means what he says. It’s also possible that these ramped-up threats are Trump’s own negotiating tactic to frighten Tehran into making the deal that Trump wants.
But there is no deal that could ever lead to the only acceptable outcome — the verifiable dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme in its entirety. There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Tehran will agree to that. The only way to dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme is for Israel and America to take it out.
And there’s now absolutely no more time to waste. Tehran is reportedly close to possessing the material for six nuclear bombs. This is crunch time.
Before he became president, Trump said that once in the White House he would end the war run Ukraine in a day. Nearly three months on, all he’s done is prompt Russia’s President Putin to stick a finger in America’s eye by inflicting yet more atrocities on Ukraine while Trump even now seeks to excuse or sanitise Putin’s aggression — an aggression that Trump refuses to see threatens the peace of the world by facilitating Putin’s declared aim of recreating the old Soviet empire with himself as czar.
Trump also said that, if Hamas didn’t release the remaining Israeli hostages by the time he took office, he would open up the gates of hell. Three months on, only a few hostages have been released and the gates of hell remain firmly closed.
Moreover Hamas, which was strengthened by the lousy deal that the witless Witkoff inflicted upon Israel at the start of Trump’s presidency, is still playing its infernal manipulative game of dangling the hostages’ unthinkable fate in front of a stricken Israel — which is being forced to go along with the continuous demands for a deal by a White House that refuses to turn the screw on Qatar, the one player in this terrible story that could effect the hostages’ release.
Last week, Trump declared the US would hold high-level “direct” talks with Iran at a “very big meeting”. The talks in Oman turned out to be only indirect. Today, Trump complained that Iran was “tapping us along”. Is anyone confident that he will properly follow through on this insight?
Trump is now perilously close to losing all credibility on the global stage by being portrayed as a bloviator, a busted flush who threatens but never carries through.
Militarily, Iran is on the back foot, reeling from the immense damage done by Israel to its proxy “ring of fire” upon which it relied. That doesn’t mean, though, that it’s been weakened as a strategic grandmaster. It has studied Trump’s weaknesses and worked out how to weaponise them against America and the world. There have been reports that Tehran has been working the circuit of key Americans in Trump’s circle in order to change his view.
Because Iran is militarily weak, this is the one opportunity to destroy its nuclear programme before it’s too late. Yet the master manipulators in Tehran — doubtless aided by the institutionalised appeasers who remain in the Beltway — may yet cause the US to pluck defeat out of the jaws of victory.
Like his commitment to Israel, Trump’s wish to end the threat of a nuclear Iran isn’t in doubt. It was Trump, after all, in his first incarnation who saw through the terrible Iran deal brokered by President Obama, pulled the US out of it and restored sanctions.
Trump doesn’t seem to be a man who takes kindly to being made to look weak or taken for a ride. Let’s hope he listens to wiser counsel, and now neutralises the diabolical Iranian nuclear programme that has been allowed by his reckless predecessors to escalate to a crisis threatening the free world.
*** My new book The Builder’s Stone: How Jews and Christians Built the West – and Why Only They Can Save It, can be bought on amazon.com and amazon.co.uk
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Jeg har stor tillid til Trump, men INGEN tillid til hans forhandler Steve Witkoff, der både forhandler med Rusland+Ukraine og nu også med mullaherne i Iran 🙁
“Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, continues to astonish and perplex by his stupendous geopolitical naivety. He previously hailed the Islamists of Hamas as “not ideologically intractable” and the Qataris — the sponsors, founders and protectors of Hamas — as “good, decent people” “
Steve Witkoff er en vatpik, og dem er der IKKE brug for lige nu, hvor Iran ikke mangler meget i at skaffe sig Atomvåben 🙁
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