“After suffering humiliating losses on the battlefield, Iran knew it could not survive the wrath of Trump. Iran begged for a ceasefire. It was essentially a complete surrender.”
Det skriver Alex Traiman fra JNS nedenfor
Han har mange gode pointer der
Men der er alligevel en del uafklarede og på sigt bekymrende punkter
Først og fremmest er der INGEN aftale, der hindrer Iran i at genopbygge sit atombombeprogram eller sit missil produktions apparat 🙁
Trump har sagt at Iran aldrig vil få atomvåben. Jeg tror på at Trump vil sikre det, hvis Iran igen kommer tæt på, men hvad når Trump ikke er på magten ?
Det er der kun kun 3.5 år til og selv om jeg også tror på J.D. Vance er lige så stålsat og at J.D.Vance vinder i 2028, vil det demokratiske parti på et eller andet tidspunkt komme til magten igen – og jeg kan slet ikke se at de har “nosserne” til at hindre Iran – det vil blive den sædvanlige appeasement og “forhandlinger”, som ikke afskækker Iran
Og Iran vil igen prøve …
Så der er behov for at Trump og GOP følger op med at kræve en konkret aftale med Iran med inspektion (Trust, but Verify) – men sker det ?
Ellers har Israel/IDF og Trump måske blot sparket dåsen 2-3 år frem i tiden
Og Iran bliver jo desværre ikke ved med at være så svækket som nu … man må formode at de nu køber mere moderne anti-fly systemer fra Kina og Rusland …
Dertil kommer at Trump ikke har sagt noget om at Iran ikke må have et missil-program …
Forhåbentlig er jeg for pessimistisk , men det vil jo vise sig …
Her er argumenterne for våbenhvilen :
Taget herfra
(June 24, 2025 / JNS)
There are some people in Israel criticizing the ceasefire with Iran. Let me state here why I believe they are wrong.
This war would not have been waged without U.S. President Donald Trump in office. Aside from the “green light” and the diplomatic cover, Trump delivered the weapons Israel needed for this campaign.
Without those weapons, Israel could never have pummeled Iran for 12 days. In particular, Israel used heavy 2,000 lb munitions—the very munitions the Biden administration admitted to withholding from Israel. We know that the Biden administration withheld many other munitions as well.
So, if, after all that, Trump wanted to join and take out the Fordow nuclear reactor from the air, using B-2 bombers and GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, which Israel does not possess, that was his choice to make. Israel is grateful for the assistance, even though it possessed its own plan B to attack Fordow.
Once the United States entered, even in a limited strike, the rules of the game changed. Iran was no longer fighting only against Israel. Trump warned Iran that retaliation would be met with the full force of the U.S. military.
…
After suffering humiliating losses on the battlefield, Iran knew it could not survive the wrath of Trump. Iran begged for a ceasefire. It was essentially a complete surrender.
Had Israel gone it alone, there is no doubt that Iran would have kept firing ballistic missile barrages at Israel. Israelis would have been forced into bomb shelters multiple times a day, perhaps for several more weeks. The airport would have remained closed.
This would have stretched Israeli resilience to the extreme.
Meanwhile, Israel accomplished its two primary goals: First, destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities as well as their ability to enrich uranium and develop a nuclear weapon and, second, neutralizing the ballistic missile threat by destroying manufacturing facilities, storehouses and launchers.
Even though Iran still likely has several hundred ballistic missiles, its program has been stopped in its tracks, along with its ability to fire large barrages.
Additionally, Israel had already succeeded in significantly degrading each of Iran’s major terror proxies. Hamas is down to its final fighters in Gaza. Hezbollah’s command and control hierarchy was taken out at the top and mid-levels, and their missile capabilities were degraded by nearly 80 percent.
The Houthis suffered significant losses after over 1,000 U.S. airstrikes and massive Israeli strikes on weapons facilities, Sanaa airport and Hodeidah port.
The unstated goal, of course, and the major remaining question is regime change in Iran. Israel struck hard at regime symbols and infrastructure. Even in the final hours, Israel struck hard at Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps infrastructure and leadership, as well as that of the Basij, domestic shock troops that terrorize the population.
While the Iranian propaganda machine boasts of major successes, destroying America’s Al Udeid airbase in Qatar and crushing Israeli military facilities and capabilities, Iranians will soon learn the truth: that the Islamic Republic has been weakened and thoroughly humiliated.
It will now be up to the Iranian people to do the rest and take advantage of a golden opportunity to overthrow their regime and take back their country. If and when that happens, it will be the final death blow to the Islamic Republic and can usher in an era of peace.
Just as with the ceasefire declared in Lebanon in November 2024, while Hezbollah was on its heels, Israel has proven that Hezbollah is sufficiently deterred, even if not completely destroyed. Hezbollah did not fire a single shot at Israel during the 12-day War with Iran—an unthinkable occurrence just a year ago.
Further degrading Hezbollah was possible, but likely would have had diminishing returns in terms of time and damage suffered on the Israeli home front. Plus, Israel received a letter of guarantee from the United States that it would permit Israeli strikes if Hezbollah violates the terms of the ceasefire. Israel has regularly struck at Hezbollah even in the wake of the ceasefire.
Now, Israel can turn its attention towards Gaza and conclude the war with Hamas. Hamas has been decimated, and most of Gaza flattened. Israel will focus on getting the remaining hostages home. Focus will then shift towards moving willing Gazans out of the Strip.
Closing the Hamas front will culminate a 600-plus day war, and will give Israel a multifront victory.
And while Trump expressed his frustration with both Israel and Iran over their strikes leading up to and past the ceasefire deadline, all attacks stopped within just a few hours. No one will remember if the ceasefire took hold at 7 a.m. or 11 a.m. It doesn’t change the stunning outcome of the war one bit.
Trump will be very happy with his strike on Fordow and the ceasefire he brokered.
Israel should similarly be very satisfied with the ceasefire and very proud of its stunning war accomplishments.
Taget herfra
Her er den modsatte mening :
What President Trump may, or may not understand about Islam and why his peace deal will fail
Taget fra Vlad
In 628 AD between the Qurayshi gang leader who subsequently became known as “the Prophet Mohammad”, and the leader of a fairly liberal people who built and was the dominant culture of a city then and still called, Mecca, a peace treaty was signed. The treaty had to be brought into existence because Mohammad and his gang had attacked Mecca with the intention of making it his first real political/military victory after successfully robbing a number of trade caravans.
When he lost that war, he signed a deal with the Meccans to not attack them for another 10 years.
Two years later, Mohammad attacked Mecca again when he felt he was stronger and the Meccans had let down their guard.
This became the template for Islamic military strategy going forwards. It has to be understood that in Islam, Mohammad is considered to be the perfect person. Literally he should be emulated in all ways by everyone. So when you see an elderly Muslim ‘marrying’ a 6 year old girl, he is not evil in their eyes, but very religious.
Examples of the tactic used against the Meccans, the Treaty of Hudaybiyyah betrayal, are common throughout history. A famous one is the dual treaty signed by the earliest Marines after fighting the Jihadis on the oceans known as ‘The Barbary Pirates’ back to Tripoli where the English copy of the treaty and the Arabic were not the same.
The most recent example is likely Oct. 7 in Israel where a group of Muslims totally snapped up on bloodlust attacked young partiers at a music festival in 2023. The Israelis, (despite the propaganda) actually believed that Hamas was now concerned more with trying to create an economy and a better life for their people and had given up the intention of Jihad and Jewish genocide.
(I have this from personal conversations with a lot of people in positions to know)
It is clearly at most, a minor variation of the strategy of the Treaty of Hudaybiyyah.
At around 3 minutes, President Trump mentions the one rocket that didn’t land.
He is likely referring to an Iranian missile fired towards Israel at a non-target. This would be a test. Break the cease fire in a small way. get no response. Then break it in incrementally larger ways.
Islam wins primarily by deception, and taking advantage of how the enemy, all of us, think. Much like communism. We just can’t believe they think as they do. And we like feeling virtuous. So we risk ourselves to trust the other.
Trump may or may not understand this and may or may not be playing “4D chess” as they say.
We know he is capable of it. But the ethos and raw strategic nature of Islam is exactly as I said. Mohammad was the perfect man.
Whatever he did is to be emulated in all ways by all Muslims.
If Mohammad won a military victory by using a peace deal as a gambit then Muslim polities are to do that.
Muslim armies have in fact done that repeatedly.
A ‘harmless’ rocket fired ‘by accident’ from Iran is a test of resolve. The only way to deal with it, is a major response which diminishes Iran’s ability to wage war.
Taget fra Vlad
Aktuelt var det faktisk TO raketter, som Iran fyrede af EFTER våbenhvilens start …
Stol ALDRIG på …..