There is no “climate emergency”, according to a study for the Global Warming Policy Foundation by independent scientist Dr Indur Goklany.
It will be hard for green activists to dismiss Goklany as a “denier”. His credentials as a climate expert are impeccable. He was a member of the U.S. delegation that established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and helped develop its First Assessment Rep
Og her er konklusionerne:
While climate may have changed for the warmer:
• Most extreme weather phenomena have not become more
extreme, more deadly, or more destructive.
• Empirical evidence directly contradicts claims that increased
carbon dioxide has reduced human wellbeing. In fact, human
wellbeing has never been higher.
• Whatever detrimental effects warming and higher carbon
dioxide may have had on terrestrial species and ecosystems,
they have been swamped by the contribution of fossil fuels to
increased biological productivity. This has halted, and turned
around, reductions in habitat loss.
Table6: Human welfare: the standard narrative versus reality
Claimed or implied impact Reality to date Section Access to water will decline While pressure has gone up with population, access to cleaner water is up
Mortality from EWEs will increase False. Mortality rate from EWEs has
declined by 99% since the 1920s
More people will die from heat Fewer people are dying from heat. Globally, about 15 times as many people die from cold than heat, so warming should, if anything, have reduced mortality
Economic losses from EWEs will increase False 2
Death rates from climate-sensitive diseases (e.g. malaria and diarrhea) will increase False. Global crude death rates have declined 96% since 1900 for malaria. Agestandardised death rates for diarrheal diseases have declined 56% since 1990
Hunger will become more prevalent False. Hunger rates have declined in the long term despite a 250% population increase since 1961
GDP per capita will decline False. GDP per capita has quadrupled
since 1950 even as CO2 have sextupled
Poverty will increase False. Global poverty rates have declined
significantly since 1820 because GDP per capita have increased 14-fold
Life expectancy will decline False. Global life expectancy has more
than doubled since the start of industrialisation
Public health will suffer False. Health-adjusted life expectancy has
increased with economic development, and energy use
Human development index (HDI) will decline, and quality of life will decline False. HDI has increased, and more people have access to, and use, modern amenities such as electricity, the Internet and mobile phones
Inequality will expand Globally inequality has decreased in terms
of incomes, life expectancies, HDI, as well as access to modern-day amenities
Biological productivity is under threat The earth is greener and more productive. Habitat lost to agriculture has peaked due to fossil fuel dependent technologies
• To the extent that inequality is deplorable, global inequality
in terms of income, life expectancy, human development and
access to modern amenities have declined and continue to
• The detrimental effects of carbon dioxide and fossil fuels are
overwhelmed by other concurrent changes that are beneficial.
• Fossil fuels have allowed the population to increase even as
the wellbeing of the average person has improved and the
Earth has become greener and more productive. As a result,
habitat lost to human uses has been halted, despite population increases. These are the very definitions of success for a species.
In the future, books on agnotology will devote chapters to how the
standard narrative on climate change impacts took hold among
the religious and secular leaders of the 21st century despite copious evidence to the contrary.
The UK Met Office declined GWPF’s offer to publish a counterview as
an appendix to this paper.